The ‘Singularity’ occurring now –

Let me back up a bit: first, to be clear as to my meaning, a singularity is a point at which predictions cannot be made due to a failure of the model of behavior… a point at which the old rules don’t apply in a big way, so to speak.

Second, this particular singularity isn’t my idea – the author and noted professor Vernor Vinge has become the spokesperson for the looming Technological Singularity

What I’d like to point out is the dead Canary.

Have you been in a bookstore lately? Did you happen to look over the Science Fiction selections? Notice anything peculiar?

There is little if any new technical-type Science Fiction being written. Sure, there are Dragon/Magic/Sword fantasy books, and War/Detective/Alternate-Reality books, but not many plausible looks into the future that so many Science Fiction books used to be based upon…

The crystal ball has gone to static. Science Fiction is dead.

A TV show that I like – classified as Science Fiction – called ‘Firefly’ is a case in point: the show doesn’t even try to paint a realistic image of the future. It’s a western in a very small outer space setting, complete with twanging accents and horses. I love the show, but it sure isn’t Star Trek… In the 60’s, when Star Trek was made, Science Fiction was all about guessing what the future would be like.

Why the sudden change?

Well, on the level of any one individual’s view, we are deluged with new technology every day. Remember Dick Tracy’s cool watch communicator? (Did you even think about how cool your cell-phone is this morning?)

So try this exercise: guess what the exact most successful, not-débuted-yet techno-gismo is going to be next year. Don’t bother to tell me about it – you are, with a 99% probability, wrong anyhow. Why? Because what catches on and what doesn’t are divided by such subtle differences and influences as to make marketers look like weather forecasters.

Yet these devices – the ones that catch on – make up the very pavement of our human culture.

So how can you predict the far future if you can’t even guess what next year is going to be like? Do I exaggerate? Watch ‘The Matrix’ again. Notice anything? What leaps out at me is the huge clunky cell phones that were so state-of-the art when it was filmed.

The next wound to examine is our understanding of current technology. Do you know how to fix your car? Do you remember way back to your childhood, seeing your father working on the family auto?

Manufacturers now assume that you will not need any repair or maintenance information on almost any product. They are for the most part correct. Most people do not have the very specialized knowledge (and tools) needed to work on any modern electronics – and electronics are everywhere now. In your car, in your coffeemaker, for instance.

Plus, if it’s broken, the newer models are typically better performing and cheaper.

Remember ‘Heathkit’ projects? Since the 1920’s, and as late as the 70’s, you could typically buy cool techno-gismos in a build-it-yourself form for cheaper than a finished product – and learn as you went along with the assembly process. Not so much, any more.

Today, electronics are (usually) built by pick-and-place machines (robots, one might say) out of parts you cannot easily see… The other day, I went to our company’s parts bins for a resistor, pulled open a drawer and it was empty… No, not empty – flecks of dust coated the bottom… No, those tiny flecks were the resistors!

Technology is exceeding the average person’s mental grasp at an ever-increasing rate. So too is medical and biological knowledge.

We are living in a world of Science Fiction-like things, ever changing and taxing our ability to understand our very everyday existence. Why would we want to write about more of the same?

Who’s steering this boat? Is that an iceberg in our future?

More to the point – we increasingly depend upon our tools to do the repetitive job of manufacture for us. We also depend upon our software to help design the next widget for us.

We want our tools to avoid stupid mistakes as they work for us. So we add increasingly sophisticated knowledge and sensors to our tools. We also continuously improve the tool’s connections to ourselves and other tools.

At what point does the human become useless to the process? I’d say that at this moment most people are of no use whatsoever in the majority of design and manufacture processes. Unlike the heyday of factory workers, a few select and very specialized experts can run an entire factory… And fewer and fewer are needed each year that passes.

When are the machines going to be smart enough to be aware of this?

It’s not to say that all folks are superfluous, it is more that incredibly smart and educated people are considered more desirable to industry than back-labor grunts.

So… let’s get smarter. Add a bit more brainpower, perhaps? Either bio-technologically or electronically, it will be possible (nay, necessary) very soon. Then maybe we might be able to fix our own cars again…

When we are done altering ourselves thusly, are we still human? Or did the curtain fall, to rise for the next dominant life form – if we are really lucky it will be ‘homo technologicus’. The ‘homo’ part is a bit iffy.